Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Role May Determine Israel's Coalition

Three seats held by Yitzhak Goldknopf’s Agudat Yisrael faction may determine the composition of Israel’s next government. Political assessments circulating within the establishment suggest this small Haredi bloc could support an opposition-led administration in exchange for specific budgetary commitments. The faction currently holds three mandates in the Knesset.

These calculations emerge as voting begins in less than a day. Officials are evaluating several potential paths for the new legislature. One option involves forming a cabinet that relies on support from Arab parties. Another possibility is returning the nation to the polls for a second election if coalition talks fail.

The idea of Agudat Yisrael aligning with the change bloc is not entirely new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring fresh political options, including potential cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. Those discussions coincided with internal friction within United Torah Judaism. Tensions arose between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah regarding the Haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition’s behavior, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also added to the uncertainty by expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Netanyahu-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a challenge in shifting his faction. His voters are largely identified with the Right. Assessments indicate that any clear signal he is backing a change bloc government could push some supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This potential voter movement creates a risk for his future electoral standing.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is another key variable. If neither major bloc secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett may decide the shape of the next government. Political circles suggest he could join a Netanyahu-led administration in that specific scenario. This is considered a remote possibility, but some believe Bennett is the only leader in the change bloc capable of taking such a step due to his background on the Right. The move would require him to shift his base of support, and the current makeup of his party would complicate the transition.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge figure, given his history of serving as defense minister in a Netanyahu-led government. However, current assessments suggest Liberman is far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister. For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than formal agreements between parties.